América vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.8%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
25.7%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
QRO
0 - 2
AME
38%
26%
36%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
CAZ
3 - 1
AME
57%
23%
21%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Oct. 2011 |
AME
2 - 3
PUE
55%
23%
22%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 1
AME
60%
21%
19%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2011 |
AME
1 - 3
CHI
51%
25%
24%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
TOL
3 - 1
EST
54%
24%
22%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
SNL
5 - 1
TOL
39%
28%
34%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
| 30 Oct. 2011 |
TOL
0 - 1
QRO
65%
21%
14%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2011 |
CAZ
0 - 0
TOL
56%
23%
21%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2011 |
TOL
4 - 3
PUE
52%
25%
23%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |