Amarante vs Maria da Fonte analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
70.5%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
18%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18%
11.5%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
51
1º
4º
1º
25
9º
14º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
51 | 51 |
1º
|
57.5% | |
|
2º
|
50 | 51 |
2º
|
57.5% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 46 |
3º
|
89% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 44 |
4º
|
89% | |
|
5º
|
39 | 39 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 36 |
6º
|
82% | |
|
7º
|
35 | 35 |
7º
|
82% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 34 |
8º
|
68% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
9º
|
68% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 30 |
10º
|
76% | |
|
13º
|
24 | 27 |
11º
|
14% | |
|
11º
|
26 | 27 |
12º
|
17% | |
|
|
12º
|
25 | 25 |
13º
|
49% | |
|
14º
|
18 | 18 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 51% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 49% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Amarante
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
BRI
1 - 1
AMA
8%
15%
77%
|
42 | 17 | 25 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
AMA
2 - 0
SMA
37%
28%
36%
|
40 | 44 | 4 | +2 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
CAM
1 - 0
AMA
33%
26%
41%
|
40 | 35 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2022 |
BSC
1 - 3
AMA
22%
22%
57%
|
40 | 28 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2022 |
AMA
1 - 2
VIL
72%
17%
11%
|
40 | 26 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Maria da Fonte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 0
BRA
67%
19%
14%
|
30 | 24 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
DUM
2 - 0
MAR
32%
23%
45%
|
31 | 24 | 7 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 4
MER
45%
25%
30%
|
33 | 33 | 0 | -2 |
| 08 May. 2022 |
MIR
1 - 0
MAR
33%
27%
40%
|
34 | 32 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 May. 2022 |
MAR
1 - 3
PED
51%
24%
25%
|
35 | 35 | 0 | -1 |