AFC Champions League Elite Semi-finals
Global 8-3
Al-Ittihad vs Nagoya Grampus analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.8%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
23.6%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al-Ittihad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2009 |
ALH
1 - 2
ALI
29%
26%
44%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2009 |
ALI
4 - 0
PAK
69%
19%
13%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2009 |
PAK
1 - 1
ALI
36%
23%
41%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | -1 |
| 26 Aug. 2009 |
ALI
7 - 1
ALQ
69%
19%
12%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | +1 |
| 22 Aug. 2009 |
ALR
0 - 2
ALI
24%
25%
51%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Nagoya Grampus
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2009 |
YFM
2 - 1
NAG
42%
27%
31%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2009 |
NAG
4 - 0
OKW
85%
11%
4%
|
80 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2009 |
NAG
1 - 2
FCT
50%
25%
25%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2009 |
NAG
3 - 1
KAW
36%
25%
39%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2009 |
KAA
1 - 4
NAG
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | +1 |