CAF Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Al Ahly SC vs Mamelodi Sundowns analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.2%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.6%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
19.1%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+38%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al Ahly SC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2020 |
ALA
2 - 0
ZAM
55%
23%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2020 |
ALA
0 - 0
ZAM
52%
23%
25%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
| 14 Feb. 2020 |
ALA
3 - 0
ALM
66%
20%
13%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2020 |
ALA
3 - 0
GEI
76%
16%
7%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2020 |
ASY
1 - 2
ALA
49%
24%
27%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Mamelodi Sundowns
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2020 |
SUN
2 - 0
VUT
90%
9%
1%
|
79 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2020 |
SUN
2 - 1
BLO
68%
20%
11%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2020 |
SUN
3 - 0
CHI
67%
21%
12%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2020 |
SUN
1 - 0
SSU
53%
26%
22%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2020 |
SUN
1 - 0
WYD
46%
27%
27%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |