Ajax vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
9.6%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.1%
1-0
3%
2-1
2.9%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
6.9%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
74.8%
Win probability
2.48
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.2%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
7.6%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.6%
0-3
9.9%
1-4
4.7%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
15.6%
0-4
6.1%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
8.8%
0-5
3%
1-6
1%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
4.1%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.6%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.6%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 1
EXC
78%
15%
7%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
NEC
0 - 3
AJA
12%
18%
70%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2011 |
LYO
0 - 0
AJA
38%
24%
38%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2011 |
AJA
2 - 2
NAC
78%
15%
8%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | +1 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
UTR
6 - 4
AJA
16%
20%
64%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2011 |
SPO
0 - 3
RMA
7%
16%
78%
|
96 | 82 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2011 |
RMA
4 - 1
ATM
86%
9%
5%
|
96 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2011 |
RMA
6 - 2
DZG
90%
7%
3%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2011 |
VCF
2 - 3
RMA
21%
22%
57%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
RMA
7 - 1
OSA
91%
7%
2%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |