UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 5-4
Ajax vs PAOK analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.1%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
16.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2019 |
AJA
5 - 0
FCE
86%
10%
4%
|
89 | 64 | 25 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2019 |
PAO
2 - 2
AJA
33%
23%
44%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2019 |
VIT
2 - 2
AJA
16%
19%
66%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2019 |
AJA
1 - 1
SIV
82%
12%
6%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2019 |
AJA
2 - 0
PSV
44%
22%
34%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
PAOK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2019 |
PAO
2 - 2
AJA
33%
23%
44%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2019 |
FOR
1 - 5
PAO
19%
23%
59%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2019 |
PAO
1 - 1
ALT
72%
17%
11%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2019 |
AND
1 - 3
PAO
27%
26%
47%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2019 |
STR
0 - 4
PAO
29%
26%
45%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |