UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 4-4
Ajax vs PAOK analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
79.1%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.7%
4-0
7.4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.9%
3-0
11.8%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.9%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.6%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
14.2%
6.8%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.2%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2010 |
AJA
3 - 1
CHL
30%
26%
44%
|
89 | 95 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2010 |
FCP
1 - 0
AJA
39%
24%
37%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2010 |
FEY
1 - 4
AJA
27%
23%
50%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2010 |
NEC
1 - 4
AJA
12%
18%
70%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | +1 |
| 25 Apr. 2010 |
AJA
2 - 0
FEY
68%
18%
14%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
PAOK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2010 |
FCN
1 - 1
PAO
51%
26%
23%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2010 |
OFC
3 - 1
PAO
31%
27%
42%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2010 |
PAO
1 - 0
ERF
67%
21%
12%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2010 |
ARI
3 - 2
PAO
40%
30%
30%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
PAO
1 - 0
AEK
49%
27%
24%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |