Europa League Playoffs 1/16
Global 1-0
Ajax vs Legia Warszawa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.7%
14.3%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2017 |
VIT
0 - 1
AJA
25%
24%
51%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2017 |
WAR
0 - 0
AJA
28%
25%
48%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2017 |
AJA
2 - 0
SPA
73%
17%
10%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2017 |
RJC
0 - 2
AJA
13%
22%
65%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2017 |
AJA
3 - 0
ADO
75%
16%
9%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Legia Warszawa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2017 |
WAR
1 - 3
RCH
62%
22%
15%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2017 |
WAR
0 - 0
AJA
28%
25%
48%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2017 |
ARK
0 - 1
WAR
25%
25%
50%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2017 |
FCN
1 - 1
WAR
38%
25%
37%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2017 |
WAR
1 - 0
DCI
59%
22%
19%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |