Ajax vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.7%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.6%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
18%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
78
1º
9º
2º
38
8º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
78 | 78 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
68 | 68 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
64 | 64 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
57 | 57 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
54 | 54 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
51 | 51 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
43 | 43 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
43 | 43 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
41 | 41 |
10º
|
0% | |
|
11º
|
41 | 41 |
11º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
39 | 39 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
13º
|
39 | 39 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
|
14º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 33 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
26 | 26 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
25 | 25 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
22 | 22 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
100% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb. 2025 |
UNI
0 - 2
AJA
38%
24%
39%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2025 |
FOR
0 - 2
AJA
21%
22%
57%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
AJA
2 - 1
FEY
42%
24%
35%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
AJA
2 - 1
GAL
51%
23%
27%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2025 |
RIG
1 - 0
AJA
20%
20%
60%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2025 |
HER
4 - 2
GAE
38%
25%
37%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2025 |
HER
2 - 0
UTR
25%
23%
52%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | +1 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
1 - 1
HER
32%
26%
41%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2025 |
HER
1 - 1
GRO
42%
25%
34%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
HER
1 - 1
UTR
25%
23%
53%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |