Ajax vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
78.5%
Win probability
2.75
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.4%
4-0
7%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.6%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.9%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.5%
7.9%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.8%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1966 |
GAE
1 - 2
AJA
27%
22%
51%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1966 |
AJA
6 - 2
TEL
84%
10%
6%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1966 |
PSV
0 - 2
AJA
50%
23%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1966 |
AJA
1 - 1
MVV
73%
16%
11%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1966 |
VVD
1 - 2
AJA
28%
24%
48%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1966 |
HER
2 - 2
ELI
63%
21%
16%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1966 |
FEY
5 - 2
HER
80%
13%
7%
|
68 | 87 | 19 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 1966 |
HER
0 - 0
GAE
50%
24%
26%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1966 |
HER
2 - 0
TWE
39%
25%
36%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | +1 |
| 27 Feb. 1966 |
WIL
1 - 0
HER
62%
21%
18%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |