Ajax vs Heerenveen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
69.7%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
12.8%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
56
2º
10º
5º
37
3º
16º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
91 | 91 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
84 | 84 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 53 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
33 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 24 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
100% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2023 |
AJA
2 - 0
VOL
79%
14%
7%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
PSV
5 - 2
AJA
54%
22%
25%
|
87 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2023 |
BHA
2 - 0
AJA
61%
20%
18%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
UTR
4 - 3
AJA
22%
23%
56%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
AJA
1 - 2
AZA
43%
24%
33%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Heerenveen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2023 |
SCH
5 - 1
VVV
58%
22%
21%
|
75 | 65 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
SCH
3 - 0
HER
29%
25%
46%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
AZA
3 - 0
SCH
72%
18%
11%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
SCH
1 - 1
NEC
38%
26%
36%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
TWE
1 - 0
SCH
62%
21%
17%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | -1 |