Europa League Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Ajax vs Genoa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
70.5%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
15%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.8%
1-0
15.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
+1
25.9%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
19.5%
10%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 1992 |
AJA
3 - 2
ADO
82%
13%
5%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1992 |
WIL
2 - 4
AJA
24%
26%
50%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1992 |
GEN
2 - 3
AJA
38%
28%
34%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 1992 |
SPA
1 - 3
AJA
23%
26%
51%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 1992 |
AJA
3 - 0
GEN
71%
19%
10%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Genoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 1992 |
CAG
1 - 1
GEN
33%
31%
36%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1992 |
GEN
1 - 0
VER
64%
23%
14%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1992 |
GEN
2 - 3
AJA
38%
28%
34%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1992 |
ATL
1 - 0
GEN
42%
30%
28%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1992 |
LIV
1 - 2
GEN
68%
21%
11%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |