UCL 1/16
Global 3-4
Ajax vs Fredrikstad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.7%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
5%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
13.1%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.7%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.8%
34.5%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
4%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 1960 |
AJA
0 - 0
PSV
57%
20%
23%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1960 |
FFK
4 - 3
AJA
64%
17%
19%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1960 |
FEY
9 - 5
AJA
53%
20%
27%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 1960 |
AJA
2 - 0
VVV
65%
19%
17%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 May. 1960 |
FEY
3 - 0
AJA
53%
20%
27%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Fredrikstad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1960 |
FFK
4 - 3
AJA
64%
17%
19%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 1960 |
FFK
5 - 1
STA
92%
6%
3%
|
85 | 61 | 24 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1960 |
LIS
1 - 4
FFK
20%
19%
61%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 1960 |
FFK
3 - 0
STR
75%
14%
11%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 1960 |
LAR
2 - 2
FFK
43%
22%
36%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |