Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
83.3%
Win probability
2.84
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3%
5-0
5%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.5%
4-0
8.7%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.1%
3-0
12.3%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.4%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.4%
11.5%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
5.4%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
11.4%
5.3%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.1%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2008 |
NAC
2 - 3
AJA
19%
22%
59%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2008 |
AJA
6 - 2
SPA
78%
14%
8%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2008 |
RJC
2 - 1
AJA
20%
22%
58%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2008 |
AJA
3 - 0
FEY
60%
21%
19%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2008 |
AJA
0 - 2
PSV
54%
24%
23%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2008 |
EXC
0 - 0
WIL
52%
24%
24%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2008 |
NEC
0 - 1
EXC
58%
23%
19%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2008 |
SPA
0 - 1
EXC
60%
22%
19%
|
61 | 65 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 Feb. 2008 |
EXC
1 - 1
GRA
38%
24%
38%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2008 |
PSV
2 - 1
EXC
81%
13%
6%
|
61 | 88 | 27 | 0 |