Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.9%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.4%
7.7%
Win probability
0.62
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.9%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 2007 |
BRE
3 - 0
AJA
54%
22%
24%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2007 |
ADO
1 - 2
AJA
12%
18%
70%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | +1 |
| 04 Feb. 2007 |
AJA
4 - 1
FEY
46%
24%
30%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2007 |
GRO
2 - 3
AJA
16%
21%
63%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2007 |
AJA
4 - 0
HFC
79%
15%
6%
|
89 | 64 | 25 | -1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2007 |
EXC
0 - 2
GRO
40%
25%
35%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2007 |
EXC
1 - 2
TWE
33%
27%
40%
|
65 | 80 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2007 |
UTR
1 - 0
EXC
61%
22%
16%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2007 |
SPA
2 - 1
EXC
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2006 |
EXC
1 - 3
FEY
18%
21%
62%
|
67 | 87 | 20 | -1 |