Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
92.3%
Win probability
3.93
Expected goals
10-0
0.3%
+10
0.3%
9-0
0.7%
10-1
0.2%
+9
0.8%
8-0
1.6%
9-1
0.4%
10-2
<0%
+8
2%
7-0
3.2%
8-1
0.9%
9-2
0.1%
+7
4.2%
6-0
5.7%
7-1
1.8%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
7.8%
5-0
8.7%
6-1
3.2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
<0%
+5
12.5%
4-0
11.1%
5-1
4.9%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
17%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.1%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.5%
5.4%
Draw
0-0
1.1%
1-1
2.5%
2-2
1.4%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
5.4%
2.1%
Win probability
0.57
Expected goals
0-1
0.6%
1-2
0.7%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
1.6%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.3%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1985 |
AJA
9 - 0
SPA
89%
8%
4%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1985 |
TWE
1 - 8
AJA
18%
23%
59%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1985 |
AJA
2 - 0
NEC
94%
5%
2%
|
87 | 61 | 26 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1985 |
AJA
4 - 1
FOR
91%
7%
3%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1985 |
BOS
0 - 3
AJA
24%
22%
54%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1985 |
FOR
3 - 0
EXC
57%
23%
19%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1985 |
EXC
1 - 1
BOS
47%
26%
27%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1985 |
HFC
2 - 3
EXC
66%
20%
14%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 Nov. 1985 |
EXC
0 - 1
UTR
48%
25%
27%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 1985 |
FEY
2 - 1
EXC
83%
12%
5%
|
66 | 86 | 20 | 0 |