Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
89.5%
Win probability
3.56
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.2%
7-0
2.2%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.9%
6-0
4.3%
7-1
1.4%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.9%
5-0
7.3%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
10.4%
4-0
10.3%
5-1
4.5%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
15.7%
3-0
11.5%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.5%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.1%
7.3%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.4%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
7.3%
3.1%
Win probability
0.62
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
2.4%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 1983 |
NAC
0 - 2
AJA
14%
20%
66%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1983 |
AJA
6 - 1
HFC
88%
8%
4%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1983 |
AJA
5 - 5
GRO
86%
9%
5%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1983 |
GAE
0 - 2
AJA
20%
21%
59%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1982 |
FOR
1 - 3
AJA
16%
19%
65%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 1983 |
EXC
0 - 2
GAE
53%
25%
22%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1983 |
FOR
0 - 1
EXC
59%
22%
19%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | +1 |
| 23 Jan. 1983 |
EXC
0 - 0
HEL
60%
22%
18%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1983 |
FEY
1 - 0
EXC
82%
12%
6%
|
66 | 88 | 22 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 1982 |
UTR
3 - 2
EXC
73%
17%
10%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |