Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
90.5%
Win probability
3.53
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.3%
7-0
2.3%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.9%
6-0
4.7%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
6%
5-0
7.9%
6-1
2.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
10.7%
4-0
11.2%
5-1
4.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
16.1%
3-0
12.7%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
19.8%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.8%
6.8%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
3.2%
2-2
1.5%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
6.8%
2.6%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
0.8%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
2.1%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.4%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1981 |
PSV
3 - 1
AJA
46%
24%
30%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1981 |
WAG
0 - 2
AJA
16%
19%
65%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1981 |
RJC
2 - 3
AJA
24%
24%
52%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1981 |
AJA
4 - 2
GAE
88%
8%
4%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 1980 |
AJA
1 - 1
WIL
89%
8%
3%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1981 |
EXC
2 - 0
NEC
60%
23%
17%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1981 |
ZWO
1 - 1
EXC
58%
24%
18%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1981 |
EXC
1 - 3
AZA
15%
22%
64%
|
65 | 88 | 23 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 1981 |
EXC
0 - 2
ADO
49%
25%
26%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1981 |
GRO
2 - 2
EXC
63%
22%
15%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |