UCL Last 16
Global 5-1
Ajax vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
88.3%
Win probability
3.52
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.9%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.1%
7-0
2%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.7%
6-0
4%
7-1
1.4%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.6%
5-0
6.8%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
<0%
+5
10%
4-0
9.6%
5-1
4.6%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
15.2%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
6.5%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.2%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14.7%
7.9%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.6%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
7.9%
3.7%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
2.8%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
2-5
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1970 |
AJA
2 - 2
SPA
81%
13%
6%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1970 |
EXC
1 - 1
AJA
20%
20%
61%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1970 |
AJA
2 - 0
TIR
88%
8%
4%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 1970 |
AJA
3 - 1
TEL
90%
8%
3%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 1970 |
VOL
0 - 3
AJA
15%
23%
63%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 1970 |
BAS
2 - 1
SPA
28%
22%
50%
|
68 | 81 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1970 |
SPA
3 - 2
BAS
78%
13%
9%
|
69 | 80 | 11 | -1 |
| 01 Oct. 1969 |
CEL
2 - 0
BAS
81%
12%
7%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 1969 |
BAS
0 - 0
CEL
22%
20%
58%
|
69 | 82 | 13 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 1968 |
BAS
1 - 2
BOL
36%
25%
38%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | -1 |