Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.1%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
21%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21%
16.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2012 |
AJA
1 - 0
86%
11%
4%
|
89 | 56 | 33 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 0
ADO
77%
15%
9%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | +1 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
RKC
0 - 1
AJA
14%
19%
67%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2011 |
AJA
0 - 3
RMA
10%
16%
75%
|
89 | 96 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Dec. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 1
EXC
78%
15%
7%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | +1 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2012 |
AZA
1 - 2
BRE
41%
23%
36%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 1
AZA
25%
25%
50%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2011 |
AZA
1 - 1
MET
52%
23%
25%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2011 |
AZA
4 - 0
GRA
79%
15%
6%
|
86 | 66 | 20 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2011 |
EXC
0 - 0
AZA
16%
23%
61%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |