Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 7-0
AEK Larnaca vs Sturm Graz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.5%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
24.6%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AEK Larnaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2018 |
STR
0 - 2
AEK
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2018 |
AEK
4 - 0
DUN
55%
23%
22%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Jul. 2018 |
DUN
0 - 0
AEK
45%
25%
31%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2018 |
AEK
0 - 0
AEK
57%
24%
20%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2018 |
LPO
0 - 0
AEK
39%
26%
36%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Sturm Graz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2018 |
SKN
2 - 0
STR
25%
25%
51%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2018 |
STR
0 - 2
AEK
47%
25%
28%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2018 |
WIN
2 - 3
STR
22%
25%
53%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2018 |
STR
1 - 3
AJA
32%
24%
43%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
STR
3 - 2
HAR
68%
20%
12%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |