Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 4-3
AEK Larnaca vs Partizan Belgrade analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
35.1%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10%
1-0
10%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.2%
27%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
37.9%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AEK Larnaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2022 |
AEK
1 - 1
MID
24%
25%
51%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2022 |
MID
1 - 1
AEK
67%
19%
14%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
APO
2 - 2
AEK
44%
26%
29%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2022 |
VAR
2 - 2
AEK
46%
25%
29%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
RAP
2 - 3
AEK
63%
21%
16%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2022 |
NPA
1 - 0
PAR
19%
25%
56%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2022 |
PAR
0 - 0
TSC
66%
20%
15%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
RAD
3 - 3
PAR
33%
27%
40%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
JAV
0 - 4
PAR
26%
26%
48%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
FEN
1 - 0
PAR
61%
21%
18%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | +1 |