UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 4-3
AEK Athens vs Dinamo Zagreb analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.6%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
33.2%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.7%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AEK Athens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2023 |
DZG
1 - 2
AEK
57%
22%
21%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
TRA
1 - 3
AEK
53%
24%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2023 |
VNF
0 - 3
AEK
23%
24%
53%
|
83 | 63 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2023 |
AEK
5 - 0
SHA
36%
24%
40%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
ANT
0 - 3
AEK
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Dinamo Zagreb
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2023 |
DZG
1 - 2
AEK
57%
22%
21%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
DZG
0 - 0
HNG
72%
17%
11%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2023 |
AST
0 - 2
DZG
26%
26%
49%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
IST
0 - 3
DZG
17%
24%
59%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2023 |
DZG
4 - 0
AST
67%
19%
14%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |