AD Nogueirense vs Penalva Castelo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.7%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
15.8%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AD Nogueirense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
ADN
3 - 1
CAN
85%
11%
4%
|
39 | 12 | 27 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
BUS
2 - 0
ADN
27%
24%
49%
|
41 | 29 | 12 | -2 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
ADN
1 - 1
ACV
20%
25%
56%
|
40 | 63 | 23 | +1 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
ALB
0 - 2
ADN
38%
24%
38%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
OLI
1 - 2
ADN
16%
21%
63%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Penalva Castelo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
PEN
2 - 0
OLI
42%
24%
34%
|
29 | 33 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
CAN
1 - 2
PEN
13%
20%
67%
|
29 | 12 | 17 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 0
VAL
80%
14%
7%
|
29 | 14 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
BUS
3 - 3
PEN
51%
23%
26%
|
29 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
AVA
4 - 0
PEN
44%
24%
32%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | -2 |