ABC vs Duque de Caxias analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.5%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
7%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.3%
17.1%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ABC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2009 |
ABC
1 - 0
POR
26%
28%
46%
|
60 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2009 |
PAR
1 - 3
ABC
61%
23%
16%
|
58 | 66 | 8 | +2 |
| 25 Jul. 2009 |
ABC
1 - 1
GUA
45%
26%
29%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2009 |
VAS
3 - 0
ABC
78%
15%
7%
|
59 | 83 | 24 | -1 |
| 15 Jul. 2009 |
ABC
0 - 4
SAO
36%
27%
37%
|
60 | 68 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Duque de Caxias
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2009 |
DUQ
2 - 1
PAR
29%
26%
45%
|
54 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2009 |
ATL
3 - 0
DUQ
80%
13%
7%
|
55 | 71 | 16 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2009 |
DUQ
1 - 2
CEA
28%
27%
45%
|
55 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2009 |
SAO
4 - 0
DUQ
69%
20%
11%
|
56 | 69 | 13 | -1 |
| 15 Jul. 2009 |
DUQ
1 - 1
GUA
39%
27%
34%
|
56 | 61 | 5 | 0 |