A Merca vs Padrenda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.7%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
5%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
13.1%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.6%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.7%
34.5%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
4%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
A Merca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2019 |
ROC
1 - 1
MER
68%
17%
15%
|
7 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2019 |
MER
1 - 1
MAC
47%
21%
32%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2019 |
MER
3 - 4
VIL
41%
22%
38%
|
7 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2019 |
VIL
5 - 1
MER
65%
18%
17%
|
8 | 11 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2018 |
MER
0 - 3
SOU
17%
19%
64%
|
9 | 14 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Padrenda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2019 |
PAD
2 - 1
MAC
46%
22%
32%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2019 |
VIL
3 - 1
PAD
50%
21%
29%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2019 |
PAD
1 - 3
VIL
25%
21%
54%
|
8 | 11 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Jan. 2019 |
PAD
1 - 1
SOU
12%
17%
71%
|
7 | 15 | 8 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2019 |
BUB
7 - 1
PAD
54%
20%
26%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |