União RS vs Novo Hamburgo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22.1%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
53.1%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.3%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União RS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
GRA
1 - 0
URS
34%
25%
42%
|
44 | 40 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2025 |
PAS
1 - 0
URS
46%
25%
29%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 2025 |
URS
2 - 1
SAN
35%
25%
40%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Jun. 2025 |
URS
0 - 0
LAJ
37%
27%
37%
|
44 | 48 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2025 |
BRA
3 - 0
URS
25%
25%
49%
|
46 | 38 | 8 | -2 |
Matches
Novo Hamburgo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 2025 |
NOV
0 - 0
SAN
64%
20%
16%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2025 |
GLO
1 - 2
NOV
23%
26%
51%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2025 |
NOV
2 - 0
PAS
62%
21%
17%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | +1 |
| 12 Jun. 2025 |
VER
1 - 0
NOV
32%
26%
42%
|
54 | 48 | 6 | -1 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
NOV
1 - 2
BRA
75%
16%
9%
|
54 | 39 | 15 | 0 |