Liga MX Finals - Apertura Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
Toluca vs Pumas UNAM analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.7%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.7%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
17.9%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2003 |
SAN
3 - 2
TOL
48%
24%
29%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2003 |
TOL
1 - 1
MON
64%
20%
16%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2003 |
TOL
5 - 0
SNL
78%
14%
8%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2003 |
ATS
2 - 0
TOL
36%
25%
39%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2003 |
TIG
1 - 0
TOL
41%
26%
34%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Pumas UNAM
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2003 |
MON
0 - 1
PUM
45%
26%
29%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2003 |
PUM
2 - 2
EST
72%
18%
11%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | -1 |
| 08 Nov. 2003 |
VER
3 - 4
PUM
37%
27%
36%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | +1 |
| 02 Nov. 2003 |
PUM
2 - 1
CAZ
52%
24%
25%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
IRA
0 - 1
PUM
27%
26%
47%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |