Liga MX Finals - Apertura Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Toluca vs CA Morelia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.1%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.6%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.6%
17.3%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
TOL
3 - 1
TIJ
61%
22%
17%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2017 |
VER
0 - 1
TOL
28%
28%
44%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2017 |
TOL
0 - 1
MOR
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2017 |
TOL
1 - 1
ATL
74%
17%
9%
|
84 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2017 |
TIG
3 - 0
TOL
44%
26%
29%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
CA Morelia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
NEC
1 - 2
MOR
43%
27%
31%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2017 |
MOR
1 - 2
CAZ
51%
25%
24%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2017 |
TOL
0 - 1
MOR
60%
22%
18%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2017 |
MOR
2 - 2
TIJ
50%
25%
25%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2017 |
MOR
0 - 0
LEO
44%
25%
31%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |