Toluca vs CA Morelia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.7%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.4%
1-0
11%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
29.2%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
PUM
4 - 1
TOL
50%
26%
24%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
TOL
1 - 1
TIJ
67%
21%
12%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2011 |
JAG
1 - 1
TOL
40%
27%
34%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
TOL
2 - 1
ATL
55%
24%
21%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
PAC
3 - 0
TOL
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
CA Morelia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2011 |
MOT
0 - 2
MOR
21%
26%
54%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2011 |
MOR
4 - 2
QRO
67%
20%
12%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2011 |
MOR
2 - 1
GAL
54%
24%
22%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
CAZ
0 - 1
MOR
56%
23%
21%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
SNL
2 - 3
MOR
38%
28%
35%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |