AFC Asian Cup qualifying Playoffs Final
Global 4-3
East Timor vs Mongolia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14.1%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.3%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
4%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.8%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.9%
66%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
0-1
11.3%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
11.7%
1-3
6.8%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.1%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.3%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.9%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
East Timor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
TLS
0 - 3
TWN
9%
12%
79%
|
18 | 41 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2023 |
TWN
4 - 0
TLS
73%
15%
12%
|
19 | 41 | 22 | -1 |
| 08 Nov. 2022 |
TLS
1 - 0
BRN
22%
23%
55%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
BRN
6 - 2
TLS
62%
20%
18%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2022 |
KHM
2 - 1
TLS
76%
14%
10%
|
19 | 32 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Mongolia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2024 |
MNG
2 - 1
KHM
29%
19%
52%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2024 |
KHM
2 - 0
MNG
52%
20%
28%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Mar. 2024 |
TAN
3 - 0
MNG
76%
16%
8%
|
29 | 62 | 33 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2024 |
AZE
1 - 0
MNG
75%
17%
9%
|
29 | 67 | 38 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
MNG
0 - 1
AFG
20%
20%
60%
|
30 | 46 | 16 | -1 |