New Caledonia vs Vanuatu analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
27.2%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
New Caledonia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
TAH
2 - 1
NCL
25%
22%
53%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2023 |
TAH
0 - 2
NCL
28%
23%
49%
|
53 | 48 | 5 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2022 |
NZL
7 - 1
NCL
69%
19%
11%
|
54 | 69 | 15 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2022 |
PNG
1 - 0
NCL
17%
22%
62%
|
54 | 42 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2022 |
NCL
1 - 2
FIJ
52%
24%
24%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Vanuatu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 2023 |
VAN
1 - 0
MNG
66%
19%
15%
|
48 | 31 | 17 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2023 |
IND
1 - 0
VAN
62%
21%
18%
|
49 | 55 | 6 | -1 |
| 09 Jun. 2023 |
LBN
3 - 1
VAN
71%
19%
10%
|
49 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2023 |
SOL
2 - 0
VAN
36%
23%
41%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | -2 |
| 20 Mar. 2023 |
FIJ
1 - 2
VAN
47%
24%
28%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |