AFC Asian Cup qualifying Playoffs Final
Global 3-4
Mongolia vs East Timor analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.1%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.4%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
15.8%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-19%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mongolia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
TLS
4 - 1
MNG
14%
20%
66%
|
29 | 18 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2024 |
MNG
2 - 1
KHM
29%
19%
52%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | +1 |
| 07 Jun. 2024 |
KHM
2 - 0
MNG
52%
20%
28%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Mar. 2024 |
TAN
3 - 0
MNG
76%
16%
8%
|
29 | 62 | 33 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2024 |
AZE
1 - 0
MNG
75%
17%
9%
|
29 | 67 | 38 | 0 |
Matches
East Timor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
TLS
4 - 1
MNG
14%
20%
66%
|
18 | 29 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
TLS
0 - 3
TWN
9%
12%
79%
|
18 | 41 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2023 |
TWN
4 - 0
TLS
73%
15%
12%
|
19 | 41 | 22 | -1 |
| 08 Nov. 2022 |
TLS
1 - 0
BRN
22%
23%
55%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
BRN
6 - 2
TLS
62%
20%
18%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | 0 |