WC Qual. Asia First Round Final
Global 2-9
Mongolia vs North Korea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
12.5%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
3.6%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.7%
18%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18%
69.4%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.3%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.7%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
4.2%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.6%
0-4
4.9%
1-5
1.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.1%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mongolia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun. 2007 |
MNG
5 - 2
GUM
85%
10%
5%
|
37 | 22 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2007 |
PRK
7 - 0
MNG
92%
7%
1%
|
37 | 75 | 38 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2007 |
MAC
0 - 0
MNG
37%
23%
40%
|
37 | 33 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2005 |
TWN
0 - 0
MNG
61%
20%
19%
|
37 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2005 |
MNG
4 - 1
GUM
73%
15%
12%
|
36 | 27 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
North Korea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jul. 2007 |
PRK
1 - 1
KSA
32%
28%
40%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2007 |
NPL
1 - 0
PRK
21%
22%
58%
|
75 | 54 | 21 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2007 |
OMA
4 - 3
PRK
60%
22%
19%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Jun. 2007 |
PRK
1 - 0
HKG
83%
12%
5%
|
76 | 56 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2007 |
PRK
7 - 1
MAC
93%
6%
1%
|
76 | 33 | 43 | 0 |