PSNI vs Lisburn Distillery analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
20.4%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
2%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
12%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
18.9%
60.7%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
4.9%
3-4
1.3%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
3%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
17.8%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
4.4%
2-5
1.4%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
11.5%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
6%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
8º
12º
12º
27
6º
12º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 57 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 47 |
2º
|
78% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
3º
|
78% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 39 |
4º
|
99% | |
|
5º
|
29 | 32 |
5º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
27 | 28 |
6º
|
30.5% | |
|
8º
|
24 | 27 |
7º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
25 | 26 |
8º
|
41.5% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 23 |
9º
|
65.5% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 21 |
10º
|
75% | |
|
11º
|
17 | 18 |
11º
|
88.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
11 | 14 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 48% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 52% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
PSNI
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
MOY
5 - 0
PSN
77%
14%
8%
|
30 | 47 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2023 |
PSN
4 - 1
DOL
13%
17%
70%
|
24 | 45 | 21 | +6 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
ARC
2 - 3
PSN
80%
12%
8%
|
23 | 40 | 17 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
PSN
0 - 3
QUB
10%
18%
71%
|
25 | 49 | 24 | -2 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
LIS
3 - 1
PSN
77%
14%
9%
|
25 | 42 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Lisburn Distillery
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
LIS
0 - 2
BRF
25%
24%
51%
|
44 | 53 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
ARC
1 - 2
LIS
36%
24%
41%
|
43 | 40 | 3 | +1 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
LIS
1 - 1
LIM
24%
24%
52%
|
43 | 52 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
TOB
0 - 1
LIS
21%
19%
59%
|
43 | 31 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
LIS
3 - 1
PSN
77%
14%
9%
|
42 | 25 | 17 | +1 |