Peniche vs Vitoria de Sernache analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
32.5%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.3%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.2%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
42.8%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.8%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+64%
-14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
6º
13º
9º
25
4º
13º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
55 | 55 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 51 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
50 | 50 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
39 | 39 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 38 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
37 | 37 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
37 | 37 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 32 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
|
12º
|
25 | 25 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 21 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 17 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peniche
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
COI
0 - 1
PEN
74%
18%
9%
|
31 | 67 | 36 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
PEN
1 - 4
LUS
20%
24%
55%
|
33 | 46 | 13 | -2 |
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
RAB
0 - 0
PEN
65%
21%
15%
|
33 | 43 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
PEN
1 - 1
GDF
27%
24%
49%
|
32 | 39 | 7 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
UFT
2 - 4
PEN
69%
17%
14%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | +2 |
Matches
Vitoria de Sernache
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
VIT
1 - 1
BEN
23%
27%
50%
|
37 | 45 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
GOU
1 - 2
VIT
50%
23%
27%
|
36 | 36 | 0 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
SER
0 - 0
VIT
51%
24%
25%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
VIT
1 - 1
COI
14%
22%
65%
|
35 | 67 | 32 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
LUS
1 - 0
VIT
58%
23%
20%
|
35 | 44 | 9 | 0 |