Messinense vs Lagoa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.2%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.7%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
20%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
16.8%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Messinense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
ALJ
0 - 1
MES
38%
24%
37%
|
28 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
MES
1 - 1
SES
57%
22%
21%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
DES
0 - 2
MES
13%
20%
68%
|
28 | 12 | 16 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
MES
0 - 1
LAG
36%
24%
40%
|
28 | 35 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Lagoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
LAG
1 - 0
RED
65%
20%
16%
|
22 | 18 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
FAB
4 - 0
LAG
83%
13%
4%
|
22 | 71 | 49 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
ALJ
1 - 1
LAG
58%
22%
21%
|
22 | 26 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
LAG
0 - 1
SES
45%
24%
31%
|
23 | 24 | 1 | -1 |
| 17 Oct. 2010 |
LAG
0 - 0
TOR
13%
20%
67%
|
22 | 60 | 38 | +1 |