Lucchese Libertas vs Virtus Castelfranco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.5%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.7%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18.2%
10.3%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2014 |
FID
0 - 0
ASL
13%
22%
65%
|
53 | 31 | 22 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2014 |
ASL
2 - 0
THE
69%
19%
13%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | +1 |
| 02 Mar. 2014 |
SAC
2 - 3
ASL
16%
23%
62%
|
52 | 29 | 23 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2014 |
ASL
2 - 1
CAM
77%
16%
8%
|
52 | 28 | 24 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2014 |
CLO
0 - 4
ASL
21%
25%
54%
|
52 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Virtus Castelfranco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2014 |
VIR
1 - 3
MAS
43%
24%
33%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2014 |
FOR
2 - 1
VIR
55%
23%
22%
|
40 | 44 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2014 |
THE
0 - 1
VIR
52%
24%
24%
|
39 | 41 | 2 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2014 |
VIR
1 - 1
ACP
74%
16%
10%
|
39 | 29 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2014 |
CAM
0 - 0
VIR
21%
24%
56%
|
39 | 27 | 12 | 0 |