Copa Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 2-3
Grêmio vs Millonarios analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.8%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.5%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.6%
15.6%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2012 |
BAH
1 - 1
GRE
29%
26%
45%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
BSC
66%
21%
13%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
0 - 0
COT
58%
22%
20%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2012 |
FLU
2 - 2
GRE
57%
23%
20%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 1
BOT
58%
22%
20%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
PAS
3 - 1
MIL
43%
27%
30%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2012 |
TOL
0 - 0
MIL
47%
25%
28%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2012 |
MIL
3 - 0
PAL
43%
27%
30%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2012 |
MIL
2 - 1
QUI
56%
24%
20%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
IND
1 - 1
MIL
38%
26%
36%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |