Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
26.5%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
3.1%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
7.6%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
14.4%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.5%
53%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
4.9%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
15.8%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
9.3%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
4º
8º
6º
19
1º
6º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 42 |
1º
|
63% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 40 |
2º
|
54.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 40 |
3º
|
58% | |
|
|
6º
|
19 | 29 |
4º
|
46.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 28 |
5º
|
33% | |
|
|
5º
|
21 | 25 |
6º
|
45.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 22 |
7º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
13 | 20 |
8º
|
52.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
67% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
67% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 99.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
FER
3 - 5
NSF
29%
22%
49%
|
21 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
FER
1 - 1
NOM
48%
22%
30%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
WNK
1 - 2
FER
60%
18%
22%
|
20 | 23 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2025 |
FER
3 - 1
COA
10%
15%
75%
|
17 | 31 | 14 | +3 |
| 03 May. 2025 |
CAS
3 - 2
FER
91%
7%
3%
|
17 | 33 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
FER
3 - 5
NSF
29%
22%
49%
|
24 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2025 |
NSF
5 - 0
SUF
92%
6%
2%
|
24 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
NOM
3 - 0
NSF
22%
20%
59%
|
25 | 19 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
NSF
2 - 1
WNK
57%
18%
25%
|
24 | 23 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
COA
3 - 0
NSF
57%
20%
23%
|
25 | 30 | 5 | -1 |