Série D Brazil Final Stages Semi-finals
Global 2-1
Ferroviário vs Caxias do Sul analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
42.3%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.1%
+3
4.7%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
12.3%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
28.6%
Draw
0-0
10.9%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
28.6%
29%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
18.5%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviário
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2023 |
CAX
1 - 1
FER
51%
27%
23%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
FER
1 - 1
MAR
70%
19%
11%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
MAR
1 - 1
FER
18%
27%
55%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
FER
3 - 1
NAC
71%
19%
10%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
NAC
0 - 0
FER
22%
26%
53%
|
63 | 49 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Caxias do Sul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2023 |
CAX
1 - 1
FER
51%
27%
23%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
POR
0 - 1
CAX
52%
26%
21%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
CAX
1 - 1
POR
45%
29%
26%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
CEI
0 - 0
CAX
32%
30%
39%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
CAX
0 - 0
CEI
57%
25%
18%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |