UCL Qualifying 3rd Round Final
Global 3-0
Porto vs Lille analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.7%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
25%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
24.2%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Porto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
PAÇ
0 - 1
FCP
21%
23%
57%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2014 |
LIL
0 - 1
FCP
32%
25%
43%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2014 |
FCP
2 - 0
MAR
72%
18%
10%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2014 |
WBA
1 - 3
FCP
24%
23%
53%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 2014 |
EVE
1 - 1
FCP
50%
24%
26%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
LIL
2 - 0
LOR
61%
22%
17%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2014 |
LIL
0 - 1
FCP
32%
25%
43%
|
87 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2014 |
CAE
0 - 1
LIL
24%
26%
51%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2014 |
LIL
0 - 0
MET
71%
18%
10%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2014 |
LIL
1 - 1
GCZ
60%
22%
18%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |