Crespi vs Carugate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
13%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.9%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
69.2%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
7.5%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.5%
0-3
8.3%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.7%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.2%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.1%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+72%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crespi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2015 |
CRE
3 - 2
CRI
19%
21%
61%
|
12 | 20 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2015 |
REA
1 - 2
CRE
38%
23%
39%
|
12 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2015 |
CRE
0 - 0
CEN
29%
23%
48%
|
11 | 16 | 5 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2015 |
CON
2 - 0
CRE
80%
13%
7%
|
12 | 22 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 2014 |
POL
5 - 1
CRE
62%
20%
19%
|
13 | 16 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Carugate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2015 |
CAR
1 - 1
SPE
25%
22%
53%
|
28 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2015 |
COB
2 - 3
CAR
40%
23%
37%
|
27 | 25 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2015 |
CAR
3 - 1
CRI
76%
15%
10%
|
27 | 18 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2015 |
REA
2 - 2
CAR
9%
16%
76%
|
27 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2014 |
CEN
0 - 5
CAR
20%
21%
59%
|
27 | 18 | 9 | 0 |