Arroyo vs Lucena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.7%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
34.2%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
6%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.6%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arroyo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
ECI
1 - 1
ARR
56%
24%
20%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2013 |
ARR
2 - 1
ALB
29%
26%
45%
|
49 | 63 | 14 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2013 |
CPC
2 - 1
ARR
61%
23%
16%
|
50 | 60 | 10 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 2013 |
UCA
1 - 2
ARR
30%
25%
45%
|
49 | 39 | 10 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2012 |
ARR
0 - 1
BET
55%
22%
23%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
LUC
2 - 1
CAR
34%
28%
38%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2013 |
SEV
2 - 3
LUC
55%
24%
21%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2013 |
LUC
1 - 1
SRQ
54%
24%
22%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2013 |
LUC
0 - 2
BAL
50%
25%
25%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | -1 |
| 22 Dec. 2012 |
LOJ
0 - 0
LUC
28%
28%
44%
|
57 | 45 | 12 | 0 |