Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.5%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
52.9%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
0-1
12.8%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.2%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.9%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
-27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alvarado
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
RSA
1 - 0
ALV
68%
21%
11%
|
53 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2012 |
ALV
0 - 1
DFR
46%
27%
27%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2012 |
UNI
2 - 1
ALV
50%
26%
24%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2012 |
ALV
0 - 0
AGR
45%
25%
31%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2012 |
ALV
0 - 0
DES
33%
28%
40%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Guillermo Brown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
GBR
2 - 2
MAI
60%
23%
18%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2012 |
GBR
4 - 3
CIP
59%
22%
18%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 Dec. 2012 |
GBR
1 - 0
BRG
87%
10%
3%
|
63 | 38 | 25 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2012 |
RSA
4 - 0
GBR
38%
27%
35%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Nov. 2012 |
GBR
0 - 0
DFR
72%
18%
10%
|
64 | 55 | 9 | 0 |